The Geopolitical Forces Driving Today's Oil Market
by Simon Watkins
2 Oct 2023 at 5:00pm
There are three key determinants of how high oil prices will go from here. First, whether it is in the financial interests of the key players who have been pushing them higher to keep doing so. Second, whether it is in their geopolitical interests to keep doing so. And third, what other oil market players negatively affected by rising oil prices can do to bring them lower again. The first determinant is that it remains absolutely in the financial interests of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the rest of the OPEC+ cartel to keep oil prices going up ??

U.S. Shale Producers Remain Cautious Despite Oil Rally
by Irina Slav
2 Oct 2023 at 4:00pm
Earlier this month, the Dallas Fed reported that the local oil industry was getting more upbeat about the future, expecting higher prices and expanding production. In fact, the Dallas Fed reported that production growth had sped up in the third quarter. The Energy Information Administration, however, had a different message: it forecast a continued decline across the shale patch, led by the Permian?the most prolific shale play in the U.S. right now. On the face of it, these messages were conflicting. Below the face, however,?

The Critical Role Of Iraq In A New Global Natural Gas Game
by Simon Watkins
2 Oct 2023 at 3:00pm
Like the first cuckoo of spring, the annual autumn refrain from senior Iraqi oil officials that gas imports from Iran will cease soon has that resoundingly pleasant ring of the familiar about it to seasoned oil industry watchers. Such reassurances are always followed by mutterings of new gas projects to be started soon, pipelines to be laid, and greener energy commitments to be fulfilled ? wonderfully evocative ideas guaranteed to win approving murmurs from the U.S. State Department, and often money too. That all these things could be done?

Oil Dips On Soaring U.S. Dollar, Profit-Taking And Demand Worries
by Michael Kern
2 Oct 2023 at 2:30pm
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down well over 2% in Monday afternoon trading, with Brent crude down nearly 2% as well, after a week of soaring prices that had bulls certain oil was heading to $100.  On Monday at 3:08 p.m. ET, WTI was trading at $88.73, shedding 2.27% and down $2.06 on the day. Brent crude was trading at $90.56, giving up 1.78%, or $1.64 on the day.  A strong U.S. dollar, profit-taking, inflationary concerns that could dent demand and forecasts that suggest increasing supply all weighed on oil prices today. Profit-taking?

Copper's Price Curve Hasn't Looked Like This In Decades
by Tsvetana Paraskova
2 Oct 2023 at 2:00pm
The copper market is in a state of extreme contango?a state of the futures curve where futures contracts trade at a premium to the spot price and signal weak prompt demand.   The cash to three-month contango on the London Metals Exchange (LME) jumped at the end of September to the highest since at least 1994 in data compiled by Bloomberg, as inventories pile up while demand seems to falter.    Analysts say that increasing inventories signal weakening demand amid slowing global manufacturing and a weak?

Russia's Strategic Diesel Ban Sends European Prices Soaring
by Julianne Geiger
2 Oct 2023 at 1:30pm
Russia has successfully moved its wholesale gasoline prices down with the implementation of its diesel export ban. Russia moved to ban the exportation of diesel starting in October, which was to include all loadings from its Black and Baltic Sea ports. The ban was part of a government effort to stabilize domestic fuel prices. Russia?s ban on diesel exports was expected to further tighten an already tight global distillate market ahead of winter?a time when demand is expected to rise. Europe?s diesel prices rose after the ban was?

Rising Oil Prices Threaten Economic Stability
by Robert Rapier
2 Oct 2023 at 1:00pm
After dropping below $70 a barrel (bbl) in early summer, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has been steadily marching higher. Last week, the price breached $90/bbl for the first time in a year, and there are no signs that the rise is slowing. Further increases would negatively impact consumers, especially for gasoline and transportation costs. While the Federal Reserve?s rate hikes have helped curb inflation, factors like oil supply dynamics are outside their control. Rising oil prices put the Fed?s attempts to engineer?

Top 10 Oil Titans Account For Over 70% of Global Production
by OilPrice.com
2 Oct 2023 at 12:00pm
In 2022 oil prices peaked at more than $100 per barrel, hitting an eight-year high, after a full year of turmoil in the energy markets in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oil companies doubled their profits and the economies of the biggest oil producers in the world got a major boost. But which countries are responsible for most of the world?s oil supply? Using data from the Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute, Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao and Christina Kostandi visualized?

U.S. To Lose 2.5M BPD In Refining Capacity This Maintenance Season
by Josh Owens
2 Oct 2023 at 11:30am
Fall refinery maintenance in the United States will see almost 2.5 million barrels per day of capacity taken offline, Bloomberg reports, with more capacity cuts possibly coming early next year.  In what Bloomberg describes as the ?heaviest? maintenance season since before the COVID-19 pandemic, between September and December this year, the U.S. will lose nearly 2.5 million bpd of refining capacity, citing data from Energy Aspects LTD.  That 2.5 million bpd represents an 11% hike in offline capacity compared to the same period?

The Metals Behind Our Clean Energy Future
by Kurt Cobb
2 Oct 2023 at 11:00am
A very observant longtime friend of mine opined recently that the clean energy economy is really just a metals energy economy where metals provide the basis for energy production and transmission. The idea that this emerging economy is going to be light on resources compared to our current fossil-fuel based economy is a fantasy. And you don't have to take his word for it. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has attempted to project the needs of this new economy. The IEA's report entitled "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions"?

OPEC+ On Alert As World Bank Slashes China's Growth Forecasts
by Charles Kennedy
2 Oct 2023 at 10:30am
OPEC+ continues to work to balance oil markets, cautiously eyeing China growth, the UAE Minister of Energy told a conference just two days ahead of the alliance?s October 4 ministerial panel meeting.  "Many dynamics are moving on and we hope that the growth in China picks up ... because the whole world economy is dependent on China," UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Al Mazrouei told the Adipec conference.  "My worry is not an undersupplied market in the short term. My worry is an undersupplied market in the longer and mid?

Rolls-Royce Beats Out Gates? Terrapower In UK Nuclear Competition
by OilPrice.com
2 Oct 2023 at 10:00am
Bill Gates? nuclear reactor design company Terrapower has not been shortlisted for the next round of the government?s competition for scaled-down power plants. Industry vehicle GB Nuclear has selected six companies to advance to the latest stage, including rumoured front-runner Rolls-Royce which has already secured over £200m in government funding. ?Satisfaction? for Mick Jagger and Partner, Melanie Hamrick, After Couple Sells Home Outside Sarasota, Florida, for $3.25 MillionMansion Global | Sponsored The remaining?

Clash Over Electric Vehicle Battery Plants Stall UAW Negotiations
by OilPrice.com
2 Oct 2023 at 9:00am
The CEOs of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. blasted United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain for expanding strikes on Friday - now in its third week. Fain said meaningful progress on a new four-year labor contract with Chrysler-parent Stellantis would allow the automaker to avoid additional strikes.  GM CEO Mary Barra was furious with Fain: "It's clear that there is no real intent to get to an agreement." Ford CEO Jim Farley said, "UAW is holding the deal hostage over battery plants."  Farley warned UAW pay hike demands "have?

Power Price Subsidies Spark Tensions In EU Market Reform Talks
by Josh Owens
2 Oct 2023 at 8:30am
The European Union member states are weighing the possibility to scrap a part of the electricity market reform due to disagreements over proposed fixed-price subsidies for power contracts, Reuters reported on Monday, quoting a draft compromise on the issue.   The EU is seeking to reform the way its electricity market works to avoid a repeat of last year?s energy crisis which hit households and industries with soaring power prices.         But a part of the reform concerning state?

OPEC?s Oil Production Grows For A Second Month Despite Saudi Cut
by Michael Kern
2 Oct 2023 at 8:00am
OPEC?s crude oil production rose by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September from August ? the second monthly increase in a row ? as higher output in Iran and Nigeria offset the Saudi cuts, the monthly Reuters survey showed on Monday.   All OPEC members produced 27.73 million bpd in September, as Nigeria and Iran boosted production the most, according to the survey based on vessel-tracking data, consultants, and sources at OPEC and oil firms.  Nigeria, which has been lagging behind its quota in the OPEC+?